The Alan Katz Health Care Reform Blog

Health Care Reform From One Person's Perspective

Senate Health Committee to Delay Vote on ABX1-1

Posted by Alan on January 23, 2008


Assembly Bill X1-1, the compromise health care reform plan hammered out by Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger and Assembly Speaker Fabian Nunez, is in deep trouble. Even co-sponsor Senate President Pro Tem Don Perata is expressing pessimism.

At the Senate Health Committee’s hearing today Democrats and Republicans alike seized on the serious risks identified by the Legislative Analyst’s Office’s (LAO) report on the legislation’s impact on the state’s finances. Most significantly, two Democrats on the 11 member Committee have indicated they will oppose moving ABX1-1 forward. Assuming the Committee’s four Republicans continue to oppose the bill, this deprives the bill of the majority it needs.

To provide Senator Perata an opportunity to find the elusive sixth vote, Committee Chair Senator Shiela Kuehl agreed to his request to delay a vote on the bill until Monday. In the interim, Senator Perata will no doubt be having serious conversations with Senator Kuehl and Senator Leland Yee, the second Committee Democrat to announce he would oppose the bill. Senator Perata may even spend some time with the four Republicans. 

What he won’t be doing, according to the San Jose Mercury News, is shuffling the membership of the Committee to assure a majority will support ABX1-1.  This even though he admits to being pessimistic about the chances of ABX1-1 reaching the Governor’s desk. “You don’t instill public confidence by doing things that people don’t understand and they don’t think is a high priority. And I don’t think anybody right now believes anything (is more important) right now but the economy …” he told Mike Zapler of the Mercury News.

The LAO report is complicating the Senator’s quest. Using assumptions nearly as optimistic as those used by the bill’s sponsors, the LAO estimates the reform package would lose nearly $4 billion during its first five years of operation. It also identified other significant financial risks. Given the state faces a $14.5 billion deficit, this has, understandably, created substantial misgivings among lawmakers.

If a vote was held today it would fail. We’ll have to wait until Monday to see if the political skills and clout of Senator Perata, Governor Schwarzenegger and Speaker Nunez, can change this result.

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